Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago – Recent economic data reveals key trends in Trinidad and Tobago’s inflation and the central government’s fiscal performance up to July 2023.
Food Prices & Inflationary Trends
According to the Retail Price Index (RPI), there was an 8.6% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices between July 2022 and July 2023. This is a noticeable shift compared to the sharper 17.3% surge observed from January 2022 to January 2023.
Trinidad and Tobago’s headline inflation climbed by 4.6% in July 2023 when compared to July 2022. The comprehensive all-items index within the RPI had escalated by 8.3% from January 2022 to January 2023.
It’s important to note the RPI’s weighting:
Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 17.3%
Home ownership: 19.3%
Transportation: 14.7%
In a month-over-month analysis, July 2023 saw the overall retail price index increase by 0.5% from June 2023, with food prices identified as the primary driver of this rise.
Central Government Fiscal Performance
The Central Bank’s July 2023 Economic Bulletin reports that Trinidad and Tobago’s central government achieved an $88 million surplus in the initial nine months of the 2023 fiscal year. This contrasts significantly with the $3 billion surplus recorded during the same period in 2022.
The 2023 surplus was bolstered by improved energy revenues, which increased by $2.4 billion to reach $21.0 billion, primarily due to higher taxes from energy companies. However, this positive impact was moderated by heightened government expenditure and a slight dip in non-energy receipts.
Non-energy sector revenues decreased by $139.4 million year-on-year to $19.5 billion, mainly attributed to reduced taxes on goods and services. Conversely, central government spending rose by $5.2 billion year-on-year to $40.4 billion, driven by increased transfers and subsidies, including a notable $1 billion petroleum subsidy.
National Debt Figures
As of June 2023, the general government debt stood at $140.3 billion, with adjusted debt at $134.6 billion and external debt at $32.2 billion.
This comprehensive economic report comes as the central government is preparing to present the national budget in just over a month’s time, with these figures likely to play a crucial role in upcoming fiscal planning and policy decisions.
